Predictions on the Mortgage Market (konut Kredisi Pazar?) in Turkey

Gröà ? e tà ¼ of the rkischen Mortgage Market& #13; tà ¼ the rkische market fà ¼ r of mortgage credits showed, promising of growth in the last years. Während the existing mortgage loans had only one portion of 0. 6 per cent of the Gross Domestic Product in the year 2004 jumped the share around 2nd 6 per cent in 2005 and then up to 4 per cent in 2006. At present existing mortgage loans are about 31 billion YTL, which approximately 5 per cent of the BIP.& #13; These statistics show clearly that mortgage market became faster than the remainder of the economy wächst. As down we expect that it probably in the near future also further described this tendency. Fast growth heated r up the Tà primarily by economic factors like falling interest and an improvement of the economic Stabilität, but also of the characteristic factors fà ¼ ¼ rkei like massif Bevölkerungswachstum and strong sole responsibility Kultur.& #13; ¼ r 2008 we expect Fà that fast growth in the market becomes fà ¼ r of mortgage credits in the midst of the continued Rà ¼ ckgang the Zinssätze further. On the assumption that the inflation rate toward more purposefully 4 per cent and the Tà will not move ¼ rkei makroökonomischen indicators more schwächer in the year 2008 to expect we that the interest sinks also further in the year 2008. Darà ¼ more ber outside must with the sekundären mortgage market starts, to become the Kapitalmärkte start to divide around the risk from mortgages to and the costs of receiving a mortgage loan continues to become probably sinken.& #13; Based on these assumptions, we expect that annualized growth in the market fà ¼ r of mortgage credits into at the beginning of the yearly 2008 on the average about 40 per cent and on approximately 50 per cent as long-term interest on 1 per cent of Rà ¼ ckgang in the second Jahreshälfte 2008 will then accelerate. Based on these prognoses, then we find that to end of the yearly 2008, which becomes mortgage credits about 47 billion YTL becomes, which about 6th 5 per cent of the Gross Domestic Product dann.& #13; Search still further, based on the acceptance continuously of a Rà ¼ ckgang the Zinssätze, and recently angekà ¼ ndigten plan of the inflation fällt on 4 per cent like planned in 2008, 2009 and 2010 prognosticate that our models of end of 2012 the mortgage credits can become as groà ? like 15 to 18 per cent of the BIP.& #13; Let’ s note you also that we believe that it two groà ? e risks fà ¼ r our prognoses fà ¼ r 2008: First is above all international Finanzmärkten of a recession in the USA driven out turbulences in the world economy and. Second is probably of a deficit on the balance of payments on current account caused a inländische financial crisis. In each case wäre it very heavily, growth the mortgage market fà ¼ r 2008 vorhersagen.& #13;  forecasts à ¼ more ber the structure of the mortgage Börse& #13; We believe that in the year 2008, tà ¼ the rkischen market fà ¼ r mortgage credits structure begins to some important à ? nderungen to see: & #13; 1) in Erhöhung Aktivität refinance: At present the Groà ? part to the new mortgage agreements is will not take emissions of new mortgages and refinancing of mortgages one groà ? EN portion on the market, but we to believe that started starting from 2008 the refinancing, around a significant portion on the market in the midst of the sinking interest. If the interest continues to sink, the portion of the refinancing Aktivität can even more than the Hälfte of the entire mortgage applications in very short Zeit.& #13; 2) mortgages with variable interest rate: At present mortgages are fixed 99. 9 per cent of all mortgages. This is not à ¼ berraschend, since variable interest-bearing instruments are very again in the Tà ¼ rkei and the risk and the use of these new instruments are not very much understood. Darà ¼ more ber outside are those very groà ? EN movements in the Zinssätze and rates of exchange at the beginning of the 2000er years and Begleitpersonen of bankruptcy still fresh in the memory tà ¼ of the rkischen Bevölkerung and provide a crisis being waiting culture. We believe to increase however that the advantages of the variable mortgages started, around more humans and their portion to pull begins, slowly in 2008. But fà ¼ r these, should reduce the banks the Zinssätze of the variable mortgages, those did not happen so far because of the competition lacking in this kind of products. We expect to erhöhen that the competition under the mortgage banks, we will begin, over gà ¼ nstigere mortgages with variable interest rate of instruments soon sehen.& #13; 3) credit institutes: At present all mortgages are offered of banks to create however in 2008 enterprises, which financing of the consumers permits to invest at the Kapitalmärkten around means fà ¼ r the housing loans begin to mortgages offer. The market structure ändern begins these new creditors, there it möglicherweise less structured and more flexibly than the Banken.& #13; 4) Sekundäre mortgage market: sekundären mortgage market the market in the year 2008 will presumably begin. We expect that at the beginning, which sekundären market will be, without a significant Veränderung in the direct Zinssätze experimental, but, will become how the market matures, it one the most important Säulen the market fà ¼ r of mortgage credits. Is heavy, the role the sekundären market forecast now, but it is erwähnenswert that sekundären mortgage market of the Märkte in a few years play an important role bend, after it is started. For example in the USA, mortgages trades into the sekundären market began in the year 1970 and in the year 1972 represents 4 per cent entire mortgage debts, erhöhte themselves the portion on 9 per cent in the year 1979 and then on 16 per cent in the year 1982. Around comparable growth in tà ¼ the rkischen sekundären mortgage market the market, companies see such as Freddie Mac should be ndet gegrà ¼, otherwise growth becomes substantially slower sein.& #13; The advantages of the documentation by a document are reduced the interest fà ¼ r the applicant for the credit, Erhöhung of the Verfà ¼ gbarkeit of credits, the Liquidität to erhöhen fà ¼ r the creditors, and erhöhte efficiency in the Hypothekenmarkt.& #13; If mortgage market with the Kapitalmärkten by confirmed by a document mortgage credits zusammenfà ¼ hren, the market interest becomes fast effects on the Hypothekarzinsen.& #13; Expect briefly said, we that in the year 2008, growth the mortgage market will continue the speed and will continue to go zusätzlich it through important structural Veränderungen, which still more growth will hren in the coming years fà ¼.

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